Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market today continued to recover slightly with an average increase of about 300 VND per kg. According to actual records in key raw material areas, the average purchase price is currently at 101.100 VND/kg.
In Dak Lak province, coffee prices were traded at 101,000 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND compared to the previous session.
In Lam Dong, the recorded price is 100,300 VND/kg after an increase of 300 VND. Similarly, Dak Nong province (old) is currently the locality with the highest price in the region with 101,200 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND, while in Gia Lai, coffee prices are stable at 101,000 VND/kg.
Compared to data from previous week's trading sessions, domestic coffee prices are showing signs of accumulation and maintaining the threshold above 110,000 VND/kg, creating a stable psychology for farmers in the context that the USD/VND exchange rate is anchored at a high level of 25,720 VND.
World coffee prices
Trái ngược với đà tăng nhẹ trong nước, thị trường thế giới vừa trải qua một phiên lao dốc đáng kể.
Kết thúc phiên giao dịch gần nhất, giá cà phê Arabica tại sàn New York kỳ hạn giao tháng 3.2026 đã giảm mạnh 13,25 cent, tương đương mức giảm 3,84%, xuống còn 332,25 cent/lb. Đây là mức thấp nhất trong vòng 5 tháng rưỡi qua của loại cà phê này.
Trong khi đó, tại sàn London, giá cà phê Robusta kỳ hạn giao tháng 3.2026 cũng giảm 66 USD/tấn, tương ứng 1,58%, lùi về mức 4.113 USD/tấn, đánh dấu mức thấp nhất trong hơn 3 tuần qua.
The main reason for the world coffee price drop comes from the forecast of stable rainy weather in Minas Gerais, Brazil's key coffee growing region, helping to improve supply prospects. In addition, inventories on the two ICE exchanges showing signs of recovery and strong export data from Vietnam - the world's largest Robusta producer - are also putting great pressure on futures prices.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
The coffee market is facing dramatic mixed developments. On the one hand, price downward pressure is clearly present as global supply is forecast to grow strongly in the 2025-2026 crop year.
According to a report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), world coffee production may reach a record of 178.8 million bags. In particular, Vietnam's output is forecast to increase by about 6% over the same period, reaching the highest level in the past 4 years. However, in the opposite direction, the decline is still somewhat curbed by information that coffee exports from Brazil in December decreased by 18.4%. In the short term, the focus of the market will be on the weather diễn biến in Brazil and the speed of goods clearance from warehouses in Vietnam.
Analysts believe that coffee prices may continue to fluctuate strongly as the market seeks a new balance between record production expectations and global consumption demand showing signs of tightening.
