Experts at Yardeni Research pointed out that although iShares Silver Trust's silver holdings decreased by 28.5% in the session on January 30, while SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)'s gold holdings decreased by 10.3%, trading volume did not show a panicked sell-off wave in either of these ETFs.
Theo dữ liệu của Dow Jones Market Data, mức giảm của Silver Trust trong phiên ngày 30.1 là mức giảm theo tỉ lệ phần trăm lớn nhất trong lịch sử.
Yardeni Research nhận định, giá vàng và bạc ban đầu sụt giảm sau khi Tổng thống Mỹ Donald Trump thông báo đề cử cựu Thống đốc Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) Kevin Warsh làm Chủ tịch Fed kế nhiệm ông Jerome Powell, khi nhiệm kỳ của ông Powell kết thúc vào tháng 5 tới.
Các nhà phân tích của J.P. Morgan cho rằng, đợt điều chỉnh mạnh của giá vàng và bạc được kích hoạt bởi đà phục hồi của đồng USD sau thông tin đề cử Chủ tịch Fed mới, trong bối cảnh giá vàng và bạc đã tăng quá nhanh và vượt xa mức hợp lý trong 2 tuần trước đó.
World gold prices once approached 5,600 USD/ounce on January 29 before plunging about 9% in the January 30 session, closing around the 4,900 USD/ounce mark, J.P. Morgan pointed out.
The reversal of silver is even more intense," analysts emphasized, as silver prices fell more than 26%, from a weekly peak of about 120 USD/ounce to about 85 USD/ounce.
However, Yardeni Research noted that at 2 pm on January 30, CME Group announced an increase in maintenance margin requirements for gold, platinum, palladium and copper. This is the 2nd increase in just 3 days.
The CME's announcement of margin increases before the market closed on Friday was actually a warning that any holding positions over the weekend would face significantly higher collateral requirements on Monday" - Yardeni analyzed. This forced many investors to sell off in the final hours of trading, contributing to a faster price drop. "Therefore, we do not believe in conspiracy theories" - the analysis team emphasized.
According to Yardeni Research, Mr. Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman, along with higher-than-forecast production price index (PPI) data, should have been a supporting factor for gold and silver as well as other metals because Mr. Warsh is considered a supporter of stimulating growth and maintaining low interest rates, and is not too worried about inflation at the present time.
Regarding long-term prospects, J.P. Morgan's analysis group led by Gregory C. Shearer believes that the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged.
According to J.P. Morgan, gold is still a diverse and flexible risk hedging tool in the investment portfolio, with investor demand higher than previously forecast. The bank currently forecasts that demand from central banks and investors will be large enough to push gold prices up to $6,300/ounce by the end of 2026.
But J.P. Morgan is more cautious with silver, as drivers pushing silver prices up are more difficult to determine and quantify, making the deviation range in forecasts higher.
However, J.P. Morgan believes that the new price level of silver may be raised, at around 75-80 USD/ounce, higher than previous forecasts.
Overall, we remain most confident in the scenario of gold prices continuing to rise, while being more cautious about returning to silver in the short term, until it is clear that the recent price bubble has been dispelled" - J.P. Morgan concluded.
